Behavioral Assumptions in Energy Efficiency Potential Studies

This white paper was commissioned by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) for the California Institute for Energy and Environment (CIEE) Behavior and Energy Program. It investigates California energy efficiency potential studies, providing insight on what utility energy efficiency programs can and should do to be most successful. These studies estimate the potential for future energy savings through utility demand-side management (DSM) programs, relating future energy savings from a portfolio of technological measures under a variety of program funding scenarios.

Most of the behavioral assumptions lie in the analytical step between economic potential and achievable (and program) potential. This step uses a technology adoption model in which consumers, whether individuals or organizations, adopt energy efficiency measures according to their cost-effectiveness, as mediated by market barriers. The following report examines the behavioral concern that the concepts of how energy efficiency works that are embodied in energy efficiency potential studies restrict how researchers and policymakers see the problem of future energy use, as well as solutions to the policy problems of the day.